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   v. February 8, 2016
Swine Influenca : Conspirancy analysis
Influenca / vaccination / health risks ... How to prevent swine Influenza conspiracy theories to influence public opinion? All major unpleasant events typically generate a lot of conspiracy theories. Some samples try to show how to disprove some types of typical conspiracy theories. - It is not planned to update this page in the future. The samples cover most usual conspircay theory types..



Swine Influenza Conspiracy Theories
Pandemics do not only generate ill humans but also ill conspiracy theories. Such theories should be disproved as fast as possible before they are backed by some bad journalism.


The purpose of this page

Here is an evolving list of theories we have come across. We try to disprove these ideas by the comments headed by __REMARK__.

There is no intention to extend this list and this effort in a permanent manner. It is just an initial and short effort to attract the attention of journalists that there is no need to back such theories by long reports.

  • *REMARK: to enable Internet retrieval of this text, here are the main keywords for this text in German language: Grippe , Schweinegrippe.


    Conspiracy theories - registered when talking with Mexican taxi drivers

    Mexicans are raised on conspiracy theories. To a skeptical outsider, people can sound pretty crazy. ..

    __ Obama gave Mexico the swine flu. __Taxi driver: “When Obama came to Mexico he shook the hand of the director of the Anthropology museum. The director died days later. Within a week this swine flu arrived here in Mexico.”

    __REMARK:__ This has been picked up by the mainstream Mexican media and is close to being a fact - for the facts that do not count. From the several 1000 (mostly elder) persons shaking the hand of visiting major politicians, a certain percentage will always die a short time later. This is fully covered by the laws of statistics related to general death probabilities.


    __ The Mexican government started the Swine Flu as a way to distract the people from poor governance. __ Taxi Driver: “It’s the right wing politicians currently controlling the country. The government wants to distract us from the huge economic and violence problems we have. The peso has gone so high!”

    __ REMARK:__ This kind of conspiracy suspicion is too primitive. It does not merit examination..

  • __ American pork lots started the virus in La Gloria, Vera Cruz. __ People on both sides of the border are starting to think this virus must have formed in one of the massive confined animal feeding operations around Mexico. The main suspect is a US owned S...F... feedlot on Veracruz. It is thought by some that flies alighting on massive pools of pig shit were the vectors.
  • __ REMARK: __This does not concern conspiracy but a very normal effort to trace the origin. Scientists are evaluating all available information. This information is part of it.
  • __ The Narcos threatened to bomb the schools. Flu is political cover. __ Taxi Driver: “One of my friends told me the narcos threatened to bomb all the schools, in retalitation against Calderon’s drug war. The government was afraid of the political reaction to this, and that’s why we have the school closure. This is the first time Mexico has ever closed all the schools in the country.”

    __ REMARK: __ It would not be a conspiracy if the government would decide a school closure not only for one valid reason but for two simultanous reasons. - But the suspicion might among others possibly also mean, we do not have a special influenza problem, influenza is all the time with us, many variants. - In this case, the first conspiracy would be to win against the Narcos. The second conspiracy would be to generate sales for the pharma industry by exploiting this first conspiracy. - There is no need to disprove these suspicions now. The ongoing scientific analysis of the Swine Flu will supply answers.


    A laboratory accident?

    (approx. April 25, 2009: CIT.: "This situation has been developing quickly," said acting... director .... "This is something we are worried about." Eight cases were reported in the US on Friday and all of the eight U.S. patients have recovered,... said.
  • CIT: "Why have they recovered so quickly? Could it be that the US officials know what they are dealing with -- a biologically engineered virus that went missing and has now infected people and animals alike in Mexico and Florida."
  • CIT: "As they know what they are dealing with they know what the antidote is. They cannot offer Mexico the anti-virus because then the world would know that the US is responsible for this outbreak."
  • CIT: "The world would want to know if this was a mistake -- or did the US actually intentionally release a lethal virus?"
  • __ REMARK: __ This swine influenza is apparently far less dangerous than thougt in the beginning. A death rate very far below 10 % is probable. So It conforms to the average statistical value when 8 patients recovered fast.. - A laboratory as the origin of a virus, this possibility is always a part of scientific origin analysis. It happens rarely but it happens from time to time that security measures did not supply full protection. - Nearly most research work with such risks is done in approximately 5 countries, the US being no. 1. The statistical risk is roughly proportional to the volume of research work. So far there is no indication of such an origin of the swine influenza of April 2009. If it was the case then we would become aware of the fact of such an unintentional accident in the near future. Typically, this would in this case be an accident and not conspiracy.



  • Is there any conclusive evidence of laboratory origins?

    As of this moment, there is no conclusive evidence of laboratory origins for this h1n1 swine flu. There is some scientific reason to be open to the possibility that new evidence may emerge in this direction, while stating that it is not very probable.

    The fact which might make suspicious, is the genetic makeup of the virus as one possible indicator of its origins.This is the hybrid origin of the viral fragments found in h1n1 influenza. According to reports in the mainstream media, this strain of influenza contains viral code fragments from: - Human influenza - Bird Flu from North America - Swine flu from Europe - Swine flu from Asia

    A scenario for this to happen, might be in theory in the worst most complicated case: An infected bird from North America would have had to infect pigs in Europe, then be re-infected by those some pigs with an unlikely cross-species mutation that allowed the bird to carry it again, then that bird would have had to fly to Asia and infected pigs there, and those Asian pigs then mutated the virus once again (while preserving the European swine and bird flu elements) to become human transmittable, and then a human would have had to catch that virus from the Asian pigs - in Mexico... - and spread it to others.

    __REMARK: __ In reality, various more probable and far simpler scenarios might be the virus origin. So this is only said in detail in order to help journalists to ask scientists what these scientists might imagine as a more probable scenario.


    More sales for the pharma industry?

    Vaccinations against influenza are usually given to people in developed countries. A vaccine formulated for one year may be ineffective in the following year, since the influenza virus evolves rapidly, and different strains become dominant.

    A huge stock of vaccines is considered as also being helpful to finance a permanent industrial infrastructure for sudden need during pandemics - even if the stored vaccine possibly will not be helpful agains a new different virus. It is also helpful to check from time to time if worldwide security measures for a pandemic case are functional and would work properly.

    So governments, medical authorities and scientists have a common interest to probe from time to time the worst case of an influenza pandemic like that of 1918 - or even worse.

    If there was no really dangerous influenza during 2 years, it might be helpful to make as much use of the research and industrial infrastructure as possible, hence also for less dangerous influenza types. This is in order to be permanently prepared for worst case scenarios.

    This should not be considered as conspiracy. It is a responsable cooperation in order to protect us from one of the major risks for human civilisation - pandemics. The pharma industry is earning significant amounts by this. But there is no simple way to create this kind of protection without such significant spending. It is like paying for car insurance while not having any accident.


    Swine Flu as a political strategy to divert attention from the financial crisis?

    The Swine Flu in fact diverts attention from the financial crisis. The frontpages of the press and of news Web sites can only have 1 main item. If this is the Swine Flu, it can not be the financial crisis. This is not a conspiracy but follows the standard rules of jornalism and of logics.

    Is there a worldwide conspiray of politicians to divert attention from the financial crisis by discussing measures against the Swine Flu? - This is not a worldwide conspiracy but a worldwife matter of fact. From past tribal organizations until modern democracy, group leaders never missed to exploit such constellations in this sense.

    Is there a conspiracy to increase in the public discussion the weight of the Swine Flu - which is just another influenza and has just a very small percentage of all influenza cases? - It is not just another influenza. There are basic differences. - If these diffences cover the current volume of measures, this is a question woth to be discussed. The definition of pandemic levels heavily rely on the occurence of cases in various different countries. In our times, every new influenza type will within weeks occur in many different countries. Perhaps the definitions of pandemic levels require to be reviewed in our time of globalization.

    Is there reason to suppose a conspiracy in the form of placing a laboratory virus in distribution, in order to divert from the financial crisis? - Everything of this type is possible, nothing can be excluded. Everything could break down from one day to the next in this world. The scientific rules of giving evidence for something, are therefore: Somebody who is representative of some unusual theory, is obliged to supply evidence of its truth. As long as this did not take place, the unusual theory has a truth value of zero.

    The probability of such a conspiracy is also close to zero because politicians are the winners of a financial crisis. The more a crisis generates intervention need, the more will the power of politicians increase, and bribery opportunities proliferate everywhere.


    Rectification suggestions for this text, if any?

    to: ok @ vox7.com




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